“Percent reporting” and vote-method composition can be misleading. State clearly what remains uncounted and how that could affect an early margin.
Election Night 2026 · 18-county field log
Track the votes. Show the source.
A source-first working log for the county-level movement we are watching in Iowa, Montana, Ohio, Kansas and Texas. Vote totals and reporting status will be entered only after verification; historical results are context, not predictions.
Prepared November 3, 2026 · No verified 2026 county returns entered yet.
Initial publication is an empty results log, not evidence that a county has no votes. “Not reporting” here means no sourced county total has been entered into this notebook.
County results log
18 counties · five states · every entry needs a source.
For each county, we will enter Republican, Democratic and other candidate votes; the D–R margin; reporting progress; any known outstanding ballots; the source; and the time checked. The table is intentionally blank for 2026 until a verified update is published.
On mobile, swipe sideways to view every column.
| County | 2022 margin | 2024 margin | 2026 status | 2026 R votes | 2026 D votes | Other votes | 2026 D–R margin | Reporting / outstanding | Checked / source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery, IARed Oak · small-town/rural | R +42.8 | R +39.0 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Clinton, IAEastern Iowa · Obama→Trump | R +14.2 | R +18.8 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Muscatine, IAEastern Iowa · mixed industrial/ag | R +15.7 | R +14.9 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Polk, IADes Moines metro | D +12.7 | D +10.8 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dallas, IAFast-growth suburb/exurb | R +5.7 | R +4.7 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Warren, IADes Moines exurb | R +18.6 | R +20.6 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dubuque, IAEastern Iowa · Obama→Trump | R +7.1 | R +8.6 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O'Brien, IAFarm economy | R +63.5 | R +60.7 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Flathead, MTKalispell / fast-growth western county | R +26.7* | R +33.8 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Delaware, OHColumbus affluent suburb | R +6.3* | R +6.6 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mahoning, OHYoungstown · industrial / Obama-era Democratic | R +3.5* | R +9.4 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorain, OHCleveland exurb / industrial mix | D +2.4* | R +5.7 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johnson, KSKansas City suburbs | D +20.1† | D +8.5 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sedgwick, KSWichita metro | D +3.1† | R +13.8 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Finney, KSGarden City · Hispanic / agriculture | R +15.2† | R +34.7 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tarrant, TXFort Worth · large swing metro | R +4.1‡ | R +5.1 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Collin, TXDallas fast-growth suburb | R +10.0‡ | R +11.1 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hidalgo, TXRio Grande Valley · heavily Latino | D +18.3‡ | R +2.9 | Not reporting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Margin convention: 2022 and 2024 are winning-party margins (R + or D +). After reported vote totals are entered, the 2026 margin will be calculated as (Democratic votes − Republican votes) ÷ all valid votes in that contest. Note: 2022 uses IA and OH Senate, KS and TX governor, and MT-1 House for Flathead. The 2024 reference uses the presidential race. These are cross-contest comparisons, not directly equivalent “swings.” † KS 2022 governor; ‡ TX 2022 governor; * Ohio Senate or Montana MT-1 House.
How we read tonight
A delayed count is not a political trend.
Compare similar county types: rural, small-town, industrial, metro, suburban and exurban. One striking county does not establish a national change.
Our 2022 references include governor, House and Senate contests, while 2024 is presidential. Changes may reflect candidates and offices, not just broader sentiment.
Officially reported votes, news-organization race calls, legal challenges and final certification are four different things. We do not interchange them.
Original sources
State election offices first.
This log will cite the source used for each 2026 county entry. Official state reporting portals provide the starting point; county election offices and certified canvasses should be used when available.
- Iowa · official results →
- Montana · official results →
- Ohio · official results →
- Kansas · official results →
- Texas · official results →
For historical source details, definitions and corrections see Sources & Standards. For election-access incidents and court proceedings see Legal & voting-access watch. Voters looking for immediate help can use our Voter Action page.